Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
